(Bloomberg Green) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed Europe’s landscape when it comes to energy security, trade, and deep decarbonization. When I first wrote about this two weeks ago, I called it “The shock of the old, and the promise of the new.” Another way to consider the change is as an open window — specifically the Overton Window, a model for understanding the range of ideas the public is willing to consider and accept. That window is capable of shifting, sometimes dramatically, allowing acceptance of ideas that might have previously seemed outlandish.
In a matter of weeks, Germany has come to consider how it could massively reduce its reliance on Russian natural gas, which is 45% of the bloc’s imports and 40% of its total supply. The International Energy Agency, chartered during the first oil crisis in the 1970s to help ensure member countries’ energy security, has published a brief 10-point plan showing how it might be done, now that it is within the realm of possibility. In the short term, decarbonization is about capabilities: eschewing new Russian contracts, seeking globally-traded alternative supplies, in particular liquefied natural gas (LNG), switching from gas to coal consumption for power, and maxing out the bloc’s nuclear and bioenergy sources. Longer term, it’s about possibilities. This is where Europe’s open window is both more challenging, and more instructive for other countries and regions.
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